PHPKU platform Index (PHPKU): Global Container Freight Index

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     The Drewry Container Port Throughput Indices are a series of calendar adjusted volume growth/decline indices based on monthly throughput data for a sample of over 340 ports worldwide, representing over 80% of global volumes. The base point for the indices is January 2019 = 100.
     Drewry has developed a nowcasting model that uses vessel capacity and terminal duration data (derived from our proprietary AIS model) to make short-term predictions of port throughput.

Drewry’s latest assessment – September 2023

     The Global Container Port Throughput Index fell 2.1% MoM in July 2023, with the small rises recorded in Africa and Oceania having been insufficient to counterbalance the MoM decline in throughput registered in Greater China, Asia (excl. China), North America and Europe. Drewry’s Nowcasting Model indicated that the index will have fallen further in August, dropping 4.1% MoM in August 2023. The rolling 12-month average growth rate fell to -1.2% in July 2023, and the Nowcast Model indicates that the downwards trajectory will be maintained into August.
     After witnessing a significant increase of 5.2% MoM in June 2023, the Greater China Container Port Throughput Index fell to 113.7 points in July, a decline of 3.3% MoM but representing a rise of 1.0% YoY. The Greater China Container Port Performance Index fell 1.3% MoM in August 2023 to reach 103.1 points led by a 3.5% MoM decrease in pre-berth waiting time.
     The North American Container Port Throughput Index declined 3.1% MoM / 15.0% YoY in July 2023. West Coast ports continued to report volume losses in July – traffic at Los Angeles and Long Beach was down by more than 26% YoY while Vancouver throughput plunged 35.4% due to industrial action.
     The European Container Port Throughput Index fell 2.3% MoM in July 2023, reaching 99.5 points, 3.1% below last year’s number. Overall, European ports are struggling with weak demand – the Spanish ports of Barcelona and Valencia witnessed 8.0% and 4.2% decline YoY respectively, while traffic at Antwerp-Bruges was down 5.4% YoY in July 2023. Source: Drewry

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     LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Global industrial production and containerised freight flows remained in the doldrums at the start of the third quarter, confounding predictions earlier in the year for a strong rebound.
     Manufacturers and distributors in North America and Europe were struggling to reduce excess inventories after the post-pandemic rotation from goods to services spending.
     Rising interest rates and a cost-of-living squeeze have also dampened expenditure on expensive long-lived durable items.

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     Global brokerage firm CLSA has maintained a buy call on Adani Ports stock with a target price of ₹878, implying an 8 per cent upside potential in the stock from its September 7 closing of ₹809.60 on BSE. The brokerage firm said Adani Ports looks to be on track for a strong Q2FY24 despite slowing global trade, with Aug-23 traffic up 17 per cent year-on-year (YoY) (up 13 per cent YoY ex-Haifa mergers and acquisitions).
     CLSA highlighted that port traffic was led by containers and gasification of cargo mix of traffic, while coal imports picked up following a demand spike, improved viability and a government decree.
"Its flagship, Mundra Port, saw a resurgence with all-time high traffic in Aug-23, led by container and coal traffic on a power demand spike met by improved viability of imported coal. The key bright spot was also logistics, with higher bulk volume (up 42 per cent YoY) and rail container traffic up 24 per cent YoY. Overall, we believe this strategic asset remains on track to gain share and grow ahead of the market, which deserves re-rating," said CLSA.
     CLSA expects volume to grow 50 per cent in FY23-26, led by the new terminal at Mundra, the start of Vizhinjam, mergers and acquisitions (Krishnapatnam and GPL), and Dhamra and Kattupalli.
     "Adani Ports has maintained its guidance for double-digit growth in its port traffic, revenue and EBITDA ( ₹14,500-15,000 crore versus our estimate of ₹14,000 crore) in FY24 despite an uncertain macro climate. We view Adani Ports as a strategic asset with long-duration port concessions, trading at a 43 per cent discount on FY25CL PE (price-to-earnings ratio) to Container Corp. Adani Ports looks cheap versus Concor on PE and EV/Ebitda," CLSA observed.
     Adani Ports stock is below its long-term average PE of 18.8 times. Besides, it is currently trading at nearly 3 times PB (price to book value), which is below its long-term average PB of 3.1 times, showing a recovery after a steep fall, CLSA pointed out.
     However, trade weakness, the viability of imported coal, the shift of cargo to Mumbai ports at the start of the Dedicated Freight Corridor and slow capex at SEZ are the risks to be considered, CLSA pointed out. Other risks include the past related-party transactions and promoter pledge of Adani Ports stock, CLSA said.
     Adani Ports share price traded 0.44 per cent higher at ₹813.15 around 9:40 am on BSE. The stock is down about a per cent this year so far while the equity benchmark Sensex is up nearly 9 per cent.
     Adani Group stocks suffered strong losses in January and February this year after the Hindenburg episode.
     The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) recently reported that people with ties to the Adani family secretly held significant stakes in group entities in possible violation of the country’s law on maximum ownership by promoters in listed entities, through some of these funds.